Realistically speaking, the answer to this question is both yes and no. If you understand that performance is different on different time frames. On one time frame (example 3 months) Oil can rise and silver can fall. While on another time frame (say 12 month) the difference between the two can narrow. So both respondents could say "see I was right?" This is what always happens in market. Both the respondents claim to be right because they don't understand their different holding time frames. This is why the question itself is ambiguous.

Why don't market participants see the ambiguity in any such question? Because they don't expect accuracy in time. They don't accept any tool or measure to illustrate polarized performance of assets in different time frames. Why don't investors expect such accuracy? Is it because no such predictive tools exist or because they can't exist?

The truth is that we never looked for such tools or measures. We assumed that if a trend starts for 6 months, it could very well persist for 12 months. Now this is where the problem lies. Most of us are momentum investors and just understand momentum. Most of us don't understand cyclicality. So we never question that can performance of 6 months be different from performance of 12 months. Most of the time this is true, performance differ for different times. But there are rare occasions when two time fames could confirm the trend and this is when real strategies should be executed.

This is what is happening on SILVER (SLV) and OIL. Here we have illustrated Jiseki cycles for primary multiyear trends. Silver is a top performer on both multi week and multi month Jiseki cycles, while Oil is a worst performer on multi month and multi week Jiseki cycles. This means that Silver should underperform and Oil should outperform on both multi week and multi month periods.

Mukul Pal, CMT, Orpheus Capitals, Global Alternative Research