Real estate sometimes is considered as an inflation hedge. Real estate has shown a connection with interest rates. Realty is also considered counter cyclical. It moves opposite to the business cycle. When the cycle is up real estate underperforms and vice versa. There are few rules in markets. And if there is a rule, it generally is broken. But looking at market structure would help.

In the chart of the week we have illustrated BSE Real with the total bond return index. Since 2007 the negative correlation has worked well. Bonds rise, BSE real falls and vice versa. Now that Bond prices are reaching historical highs, on an alternate basis we could assume prices are forming an ending B primary wave. This means a rising interest rates and possibly a rise in BSEREAL are likely. This would fit the counter cyclical picture of BSE Real very well. The relative performance indicator needs to hit a bottom and reverse. BSE Real is our top potential outperformer for Q1 2011.

Mukul Pal, CMT, Orpheus Capitals, Global Alternative Research