Now that tin has rocked the boat delivering the maximum returns along with sugar at 45% among 54 global assets just in 56 days, the best performer deserves another look. Among metals just after Tin, the rankings suggest Nickel as the second best performer. The metal delivered 10% in 24 days.

Performance cycles suggest that the best performer invariably underperforms. Both tin and nickel have topping cycles. Above this Nickel seems to be non confirming tin. Tin has made a new high while Nickel is struggling below May 2010 highs. Nickel is also seems to be making a potential head and shoulder compared to Tin which is completing a five legged impulse.

If we needed more negative confirmation we have AIGI, the industrials metals index which also has a topping Rieki. Though silver and gold are still low in rankings, gold being the worst performance among the 9 metals, AIGP (the precious metals index) also has a topping Rieki. Whether Gold, silver and precious metals continue to hold, the overall picture does not look too encouraging for nickel and tin bulls. A weekly negative close on both and we should be ready for sell off on respective metals. How this is going to reflect on gold and silver should not be tough to comprehend.

Mukul Pal, CMT, Orpheus Capitals, Global Alternative Research