Two more gaps are left at 4759 and 4651, market has entered back into the down trending channel formed prior to January 2012 after it breached 4928 recently, once in that channel the downsides open up to as much as 4100, all in steps though, relief rallies, if any are a part of the game.

A relief rally from 4759(where there in an unfilled gap),which is also near the 78.6% retracement level of 4766, is the bull's nearest hope for any relief.


Kapil Tandon.

Two more gaps are left at 4759 and 4651, market has entered back into the down trending channel formed prior to January 2012 after it breached 4928 recently, once in that channel the downsides open up to as much as 4100, all in steps though, relief rallies, if any are a part of the game.

A relief rally from 4759(where there in an unfilled gap),which is also near the 78.6% retracement level at 4766, is the bull's nearest hope for any relief.


Kapil Tandon.

Elliott Being My primary tool for Analysis, I do agree with Rohit, that we could see a retracement, unless there are extensions. However, Our research says that its unlikely that Nifty will have a major trend Change without testing 4640. I have posted this earlier in the forum when Nifty broke 5070.

Is todays pattern an exhibition of Exhaution?? Me thinks NO WAY!! Too many Nifty components have just broken down and unlikely that we will end the downfall here.

That said if Nifty trades above 5180, I am deserting the Bears.

4100 being tested may very well be possible, but before heading there we will test 4640 and 4530, so lets take what Nifty does on the way there....

Anant Acharya
www.appliedelliottwave.com

Its been a month since my last post here. As expected we did see the bounce and this may very well be the last stages of the upward pull back. The downtrend should resume soon.

It appears to be a corrective rally and should be retraced swiftly and violently soon.

5180 was tested and failed miserably today and if we do not see a retest of the same and a close above that in a couple of sessions, then Nifty is very calmly setting up for a deep gash.

A fall to 4640 in an Impulsive pattern, would be an ideal point to turn Bullish.More when we reach there.

At the moment 5180 and 4992 hold the key. Trade Wisely!

Anant J Acharya
www.appliedelliottwave.com

A move to 5450 appears imminent but will it stop there as a 3 wave advance. I think so but long term momentum indicators are turning now and an engulfing bull candle on the monthly charts is asking us to relook at our analysis

Enclosed pdf is Nifty futures hourly bars updated to now.

1) Interesting conundrum, where Trend-following wont work in the days ahead. Contrarian counter-intuitive trading may.
2) The IRREGULAR B low formed at 4762 on 6th April WILL BE BROKEN, yet before that:
3) pattern since the completion of the large blue ABC is another IRREGULAR B wave! within which,
4) the projected map is drawn in blue lines. Any pullbacks if coming closer to 5150 are buying points for a ride to 5370-80 area and a fall from there close to 5050 (when it comes we will get better finesse if it will be ONLY 5050 or as low as 4950) we will complete the C wave of this Upward breaking out IRREGULAR B. From 5050 a ride to 5480-5500 is feasible.

Once so much is done the validity of the IRREGULAR B at 4762 will come into play and we will see a final low for the year, lower than seen so far.

Corrections of a larger trend are the most complex places in the market. Trend following works in persisting large trends and Elliott waves help explain "nature" of the market better, hence comfortable in taking on the stance of a counter-intuitive, counter trend contrarian trader for the next several weeks with an UPWARD Bias now.

The whole pattern has got extended into a larger degree A completing on the day I wrote my last note and since then the sideways to upward tilting IRREGULAR B has come. Once we slip down to 5050 re-test or slightly lower a final C upward burst close to 5500 is feasible. Thereafter the large drop to 4500 area.

Given that Gold and Silver are showing ADVANCED signs of forming their long term bottoms yet again and if 1500 and 2600 respectively are not broken on each respectively, I see a minimum 50% and minimum 100% upmove in Gold and Silver respectively. What may happen is that while Gold Silver form their bottoms, one last vestige of some risk-on behaviour takes over global markets for the next 2-3 weeks fulfilling the rising Irregular B wave scenario on Nifty into 5480 or so. Thereafter, as Gold and Silver take off onto a massive extended long term Vth wave a very negative scenario globally returns shunning risk left, right and centre. During this period Western equity markets that have been LATE on the cycle in the last 3 years will COLLAPSE. Japan will go down to no more than 7800 (around 10% from current levels), China will at worst retest the 2100 lows and Nifty may go to slightly lower than 4500. All markets are in general having similar directions with some minor lead or lag BUT different amplitudes. Asia will return to be outperformer in the next bull market and signs of that are clearly visible across the long term charts of Nifty, Shanghai Comp and Nikkei.

In any case, we all must move along the simple idea that all forecasts are an imagination of the future disciplined by observations of the past and as new evicdence presents itself on the table be humble to adjust our anticipations accordingly.

Happy Trails to all.