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LONG TERM ANALYSIS OF INDIA NIFTY
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TOPIC: LONG TERM ANALYSIS OF INDIA NIFTY
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#787
Re:LONG TERM ANALYSIS OF INDIA NIFTY 10 Months, 3 Weeks ago Karma: 11
WOW! That is a beautiful piece of analysis from Sushil.

I move from level to level as the markets unfold following them without an argument. At open today which was well above the 5182 level I was looking for, a bullish stance is now required till the present move up continues.

However an important point here is the Triangular pattern that Nifty has unfolded over the last few sessions. This points to the entire rally from 4770 levels of June 4, 2012 being a corrective rally and not a trend. Thus this rally should be retraced completely in days to come. As long as we remain above 5050 a Bullish Stance is very much warranted.
Ananth Acharya (User)
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#789
Re:LONG TERM ANALYSIS OF INDIA NIFTY 10 Months, 3 Weeks ago Karma: 3
Here is chart I have been sharing everywhere. A triangle of triangles. Sushil may recall my argument over H&S and triangle in the right shoulder from the 2010 high. Now every move as I have shown over the last two years is a triangle in wave B, including the recent one as mentioned by Anant. So that tells me that the entire period is a pattern and joining the trendlines for now it looks like a triangle. Looks like fun. A 85 week pattern already it is now in complete equality to the triangle at the bottom from 2001-2003 when the Sensex was between 2600-3750. That took 84 weeks so its an almost time equality as well. All I can say is that then what we are looking at is a distribution triangle that is completing time equality longer term the next move will prove all disastrous forecasts true if what I have observed is right.
ROHIT SRIVASTAVA (User)
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#791
Re:LONG TERM ANALYSIS OF INDIA NIFTY 10 Months, 2 Weeks ago Karma: 11
Rohit,
An interesting and creative way of looking at the pattern. Thank you very much. I had not considered this. Could you please elaborate the reason to consider this in this position of the market, as I am still unsure how it would fit in the overall scheme of the pattern.

My thoughts...
1. This would call for the rally from the lows of October 2009 to November 2010, be counted as an '(A) wave. Now this would imply that once this rally to 5450 is complete, we could see a repeat of the earlier fall of 2008. Never seen any Triangle that has retraced almost 100% of the earlier pattern. If you have any instance of such an occurrence earlier, could you please share.
2. If we are to consider the start of the CT from the top of Nov 2010, then we are looking at one more wave down from 5450. However this would call for a repeat of the rally from 2009-2010 and in that case we are expecting a Zig Zag off the lows of 2009 extending well into 2014 (maybe)

Please do shed some more light on this. Thank you. - ANANT
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#792
Re:LONG TERM ANALYSIS OF INDIA NIFTY 10 Months, 2 Weeks ago Karma: 3
If the CT is bullish then one more sell off in wave E should hold the lower trendline near 4800. Yes then things can turn positive however as mentioned I think its a distribution triangle a mirror image of 2001-2003 at the bottom.

Have I seen this? Many times in stocks. In index we are witnessing this first time at supercycle degree in India but it has occurred in China after 2009. Let me share some charts. Here is one and wonder if anyone can guess the name of the stock...[clue:from the tech bubble]
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#793
Re:LONG TERM ANALYSIS OF INDIA NIFTY 10 Months, 2 Weeks ago Karma: 3
China from 2009
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#794
Re:LONG TERM ANALYSIS OF INDIA NIFTY 10 Months, 2 Weeks ago Karma: 11
Ah. Ok. I get what you mean.
E W patterns both of us look at them differently. I understand what you are implying completely.
Brilliant. Thank you once again. - Anant
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